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Primeur weekly 2018-09-03

Focus

Automation helps CERN manage Big Data with easy-to-install SAFE data centre modules ...

Exascale supercomputing

Deep learning to predict fusion disruptions picked for first US exascale system ...

Quantum computing

Qrypt licenses ORNL's quantum random number generator to fortify encryption methods ...

Focus on Europe

Partnership between University of Amsterdam IAS and TNO to get a grip on complexity ...

The I4MS Initiative launches the first Disruptor Awards Contest for the best experiments featuring digital transformation ...

Middleware

Data In Science Technologies deploys Bright Cluster Manager at HudsonAlpha to improve cluster efficiency and scalability ...

SDSC awarded a three-year NSF grant for data reproducibility research ...

Altair introduces a disruptive new licensing model for the solidThinking software suite ...

Hardware

DDN finalizing acquisition of Tintri, expert in enterprise virtualization ...

New Texas supercomputer to push the frontiers of science ...

Penguin Computing expanding capabilities with new production facility, customer demonstration lab, and briefing centre in Fremont headquarters ...

GlobalFoundries reshapes technology portfolio to intensify focus on growing demand for differentiated offerings ...

Texas Advanced Computing Center selects Mellanox HDR 200G InfiniBand to accelerate new large-scale supercomputer ...

Mellanox announces availability of 200G LinkX copper and optical cables and transceiver for Ethernet and HDR InfiniBand ...

Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center's Bridges supercomputer extended by National Science Foundation ...

Applications

Attacking aftershocks ...

RENCI to lead two $1 million grants to support data-intensive scientific research ...

National Science Foundation awards $4.9 million to protect U.S. scientific workflow ...

Manufacturing programme calls for proposals focused on challenges in steel and aluminum ...

University of Wisconsin-Madison and Argonne partner to further advanced manufacturing technologies and entrepreneurship ...

Study in which BSC participated suggests 2005 record of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic close to maximum possible ...

Russian scientists have increased the Internet speed up to one and a half times ...

Preparing for chemical attacks with improved computer models ...

2018 APAC HPC-AI Student Competition sharpens weather forecast accuracy and image recognition to deliver improved real-life results ...

OneClick.ai joins NVIDIA Inception programme ...

The Cloud

OpenStack bare metal Clouds, fast forward upgrades and hardware accelerators take centre stage in latest release, Rocky ...

Study in which BSC participated suggests 2005 record of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic close to maximum possible


22 Aug 2018 Barcelona - In a multi-national collaborative study published inScience Advances, scientists from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), the University of Melbourne and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) found the record number of tropical cyclones that occurred over the North Atlantic in 2005 (28 storms) is close to the maximum number that might occur in this region given existing climate conditions.

This information is useful for risk management because the year 2005 has already been extensively studied and its tropical cyclone hazards and risks to infrastructure are well known. Thus, it could serve as a tropical cyclone risk benchmark for future hurricane seasons in this basin.

The year 2005 was certainly the biggest year for tropical storm and hurricane numbers in the Atlantic since the 1940s and, by some measures, the biggest for at least 150 years. There were so many tropical storms in 2005 that the U.S. National Hurricane Center ran out of tropical cyclone names; by late in the hurricane season, they resorted to calling tropical storms by letters of the Greek alphabet. It is of considerable interest whether a year like 2005 might occur again, and how often, not only for hurricane forecasters but for emergency and risk managers throughout the North Atlantic region.

In this study, thousands of years of climate model simulations were examined to see if they could produce climate conditions more favourable for tropical cyclone formation in this region than occurred in 2005. The statistical relationship between climate conditions during the tropical cyclone season and tropical cyclone formation has been previously calculated using a variety of indices, which were examined in this study. The year-to-year simulated variations of these indices in the climate models were compared to total observed tropical cyclone numbers in 2005, but the models only exceeded the observed 2005 numbers rarely, about 1% of the time, and maximum index values simulated in the models were still comparable to 2005 numbers.

Lead author, Dr. Sally Lavender of CSIRO, stated: "It's hard for the Atlantic climate to generate a lot more tropical cyclones in this region than occurred in 2005. Even when we looked at thousands of years of climate model simulations, they didn't really indicate a convincing possibility of many more tropical storms."

While the study does provide an estimate of the maximum number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, there are important remaining issues. "The indices do show generally good relationships between climate and tropical cyclone formation rates, but they are not perfect", added Dr. Caron (BSC), "and the climate model simulations of the Atlantic climate could be improved."

The study also does not directly examine the potential for damage caused by the storms. Hurricane damage in a season is correlated with the overall number of hurricanes, but there is variation within those hurricanes as to the extent of that damage—an issue that Dr. Caron and his colleagues plan on looking into in an upcoming study.

The work was sponsored by the Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) and had further input from Stockholm University's Bolin Centre for Climate Research. Dr. Mark Guishard of RPI stated: "This work is important in the context of risk management, so it's not surprising that our industry sponsors were keen to support this research." RPI is a science-business partnership based at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, supporting researchers in academia and providing independent insights for decision makers in the insurance industry.

The paper is titled " Estimation of the maximum annual number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using climate models ".
Source: Barcelona Supercomputing Center - BSC

Back to Table of contents

Primeur weekly 2018-09-03

Focus

Automation helps CERN manage Big Data with easy-to-install SAFE data centre modules ...

Exascale supercomputing

Deep learning to predict fusion disruptions picked for first US exascale system ...

Quantum computing

Qrypt licenses ORNL's quantum random number generator to fortify encryption methods ...

Focus on Europe

Partnership between University of Amsterdam IAS and TNO to get a grip on complexity ...

The I4MS Initiative launches the first Disruptor Awards Contest for the best experiments featuring digital transformation ...

Middleware

Data In Science Technologies deploys Bright Cluster Manager at HudsonAlpha to improve cluster efficiency and scalability ...

SDSC awarded a three-year NSF grant for data reproducibility research ...

Altair introduces a disruptive new licensing model for the solidThinking software suite ...

Hardware

DDN finalizing acquisition of Tintri, expert in enterprise virtualization ...

New Texas supercomputer to push the frontiers of science ...

Penguin Computing expanding capabilities with new production facility, customer demonstration lab, and briefing centre in Fremont headquarters ...

GlobalFoundries reshapes technology portfolio to intensify focus on growing demand for differentiated offerings ...

Texas Advanced Computing Center selects Mellanox HDR 200G InfiniBand to accelerate new large-scale supercomputer ...

Mellanox announces availability of 200G LinkX copper and optical cables and transceiver for Ethernet and HDR InfiniBand ...

Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center's Bridges supercomputer extended by National Science Foundation ...

Applications

Attacking aftershocks ...

RENCI to lead two $1 million grants to support data-intensive scientific research ...

National Science Foundation awards $4.9 million to protect U.S. scientific workflow ...

Manufacturing programme calls for proposals focused on challenges in steel and aluminum ...

University of Wisconsin-Madison and Argonne partner to further advanced manufacturing technologies and entrepreneurship ...

Study in which BSC participated suggests 2005 record of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic close to maximum possible ...

Russian scientists have increased the Internet speed up to one and a half times ...

Preparing for chemical attacks with improved computer models ...

2018 APAC HPC-AI Student Competition sharpens weather forecast accuracy and image recognition to deliver improved real-life results ...

OneClick.ai joins NVIDIA Inception programme ...

The Cloud

OpenStack bare metal Clouds, fast forward upgrades and hardware accelerators take centre stage in latest release, Rocky ...