The report provides a framework to evaluate the market impact through four scenarios that assess the range of possible outcomes. Each scenario is based on varying assumptions and severity of the impact to business for technology suppliers. For each scenario, a range of critical factors are assessed with a resulting updated forecast, presented with leading indicators to help clients navigate this emergency.
"The emergence of COVID-19 has brought with it travel bans and quarantines; massive slowing of the supply chain; uncertainty in the stock market; falling business confidence, and growing panic among the population", stated Mario Morales, programme vice president, Semiconductors and Enabling Technologies at IDC. "Despite the growing uncertainty and panic, technology suppliers must continue to focus on their long-term investments, maintain engagement with partners and prospects, and look to specific markets for stability. Emerging technologies like 5G, the Internet of Things, high-performance computing, and intelligent edge will be fundamental to an overall recovery by the technology sector."
Report highlights include:
IDC in March 2020 has been mapping four semiconductor revenue forecast scenarios:
Technology supply chain recovery:
Global disruption to economy and technology demand:
Impact on broader technology industry & initiatives:
At this time, IDC believes the most likely outcome for this event will be a year-over-year revenue growth rate of -6% for the worldwide semiconductor market in 2020. IDC gives this scenario a 54% probability. Under this scenario, the supply chain will start to recover, and quarantines and travel bans will ease, over the summer. For the worldwide semiconductor market, the impact will be $25,8 billion. While the impact of the virus will be felt through the bulk of the year, the accumulated knowledge about the virus, public health initiatives, and other efforts will to some degree mitigate harm done by COVID-19. In the short term there will be lower demand for systems and some impact to component availability, but as recovery sets in, growth will return to the market.
The report is available at the IDC website.